뉴스 검색결과 262건
- S&P보고서 한국관련부문 발췌 전문
- 다음은 S&P가 18일 발표한 "세계 금융시스템 스트레스" 보고서 전문중 한국관련부문을 발췌 요약한 것이다.
Global Financial System Stress
Standard & Poor"s continues to monitor the 68 financial systems it covers for signs of weaking credit quality. This fourth update on global financial system stress identifies 15 examples of banking systems experiencing or vulnerable to credit quality deterioration .
While credit busts differ from country to country in their forms and immediate causes, often there are some common elements underlying systemic stress. Standard & Poor"s earlier reports focused on finanacial systems whose difficulties stemmed from an overexuberant credit boom. To predict the likelihood of a coming credit bust, Standard & Poor"s monitors several leading indicators - among other qualitative and quantitative measures - in order to spot adverse trends. These indicators - excessive credit growth, increasing leverage of the private sector, asset price inflation, and the weakening of a banking system"s external position - were the reasons behind some current stress situations, and raise the possibility of future asset quality problems in others. However, some other systems are experiencing difficulities becasuse of a persistent structural weakenss in their domestic economies, the lack of necessary economic restructuring, political interference with the lending process, inappropriate sequencing of deregulation, weak supervision, poor credit culture and management, or a combination of these factors. In addition to pointing out the future vulnerabilities signaled by the leading indicator, Standard & Poor"s also attempts to identify the main reasons that caused some of the exisiting stress situations.
Standard & Poor"s addresses the dimension of the possible or existing problems by estimating the potential level of gross problematic assets(GPAs) in the financial system in a reasonable worst-case economic scenario expressed as a percentage of domestic credit to the private sector and nonfinancial public enterprises. Standard & Poor"s then groups the 68 systems and bank executives. The assumptions behind these scenarios are severe and, accordingly, Standard & Poor"s expects that most of the 15 systems examined in this report will not experience such conditions in the coming year.
Systems Under Stress Because of Inefficient Economic Structure
Three Central European financial systems are enduring financial stress. The Czech Republic, the Slovak Republic, and Romania are all so-called "transition economies" that have been transforming into market systems in the past decade. For all the countries in the region, this process involved the restructuring of their corporate structure, winnowing out the nonviable enterprises by privatizing or closing down ineffient, loss-making state companies. It also meant clearing the banking sector of the bad debt load that the former regime left it with, as well as recapitalizing and privatizing it. Most countries went through this painful process in the first half of the 1990s, and their banking systems are, if not robust, healthy and more capable to cope with external shocks. The three countries experiencing financial stress postponed the restructuring process both in the corporate and banking sectors, and are suffering from the consequences of prolonging inefficient economic structures. The failure to implement the necessary restructuring was due to a alck of political will. The resulting economic and financial problems led to an economic slowdown in these countries, preventing the banks from underwriting healthy new business.
China, although not a declared transition economy, is experimenting with the modernization of its economy. However, restructuring in the corporate and banking sectors has not been deep enough to radically improve efficiency, The absence of restructuring coupled with high credit growth in excess of economic growth and a lack of credit culture created a dangerous situation for the banking sector.
중략
Systems Under Stress Recovering from Crises
Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand are suffering from the aftermath of a financial meltdown in 1998. Although to different degrees, all three banking systems are characterized by high levels of NPLs and capital constraints. Indonesian and Thai banks operate in weakened economies with a continuing decline in prlvate credit demand as the corporate sector is still recovering. The lack of viable lending opportunities due to the poor health of the enterprise sector adds to banks’ difficulties in cleaning their portfolios. The Korean banking sector is ailing, as corporate restructuring is slow. A relatively weak legal infrastructure by international standards hampers loan loss recovery in Indonesia and Thailand, while strengthened financial regulations have failed to translate into improved lending practices in Korea. Japan, although slowly recovering, has been under stress developed, and father along the way to recovery, the Japanese banking system faces the same type of difficulties as the Indonesian, Korean, and Thai systems. Protracted restructuring of the leveraged corporate sector, and a still high level of problem assets hinder the rebounding of these banks.
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Korea : Potential GPAs of 25%~40%
Incomplete privates sector restructuring and low levels of bank capitalization continue to constrain the recovery of Korea’s financial sector. While four of the five largest chaebol industrial groups have ostensibly reduced their average debt-to-equity ratios to 174% at end-1999 from 352% one year earller the absolute level of debt is perceived to have declined less significantly. The fifth chaebol group., Daewoo Corp., collapsed in July 1999, prompting further government assistance to the financial system, this time to the much-troubled investment trust company sector. Restructuring of the smaller conglomerates has taken the form of debt rescheduling and debt-for-equity swaps, which may only delay the resolution of asset quality problems.
Recently, several major Korean banks have issued subordinated debt instruments that qualify as Tier 2 capital to boost their regulatory capital position. Standard & Poor’s regards such instruments as lower quality capital however, given their inherent debt characteristics. Although financial regulations have been strengthened, lending practices appear to be improving only slow. The government’s reluctance to sell the banks at market clearing prices to strong foreign partners means that much of the banking system remains in state hands. As a result, Standard & Poor’s has raised its estimate of the direct fiscal impact of the financial sector bailout, excluding recoveries not yet recorded to Korean won(\)140 trillion -equivalent to 29% of 1999 GDP - from W120 trillion.
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Systems Vulnerabel Because Of Rapid Credit Growth
Some other banking systems, while seemingly robust or, at least, unstressed, are nevertheless vulnerable to assset quality deterioration due to different factors. Excessive credit growth amid falling margins due to intense competition is a classic cause and a signal of a credit bust. In addition, it generally induces overly optimistic assumptions about future expansion, prompting banks to relax credit criteria. Both Ireland and the Netherlands are experiencing high credit growth, especially iin their mortgage lending. While both economies are strong, and thus a sudden deterioration of asset quality is unlikely to jeopardize the overall stability of their banking systems, a collapse in asset prices and retail assets could nevertheless have serious effects on them. The effects of a credit bust would probably be much graver for Panama, a country with weaker economic fundamentals.
Strong economic growth continues in th U.S., and analytical opinions are divided between forecasting a soft or hard landing. Some argue that the "new economy" is growing on the merit of a productivity breakthrough, while others fear a bubble fed by unfounded stock market euphoria and concomitant consumption-driven growth. While the detailed anaysis of the likely outcome is beyond the scope of this article, Standard & Poor"s is concerned about the possible effects on the banking concerns are aggravated by some economic imbalance, notably the U.S."s widening current account deficit, which makes the country vulnerable to changes in foreign investor confidence. At the same time, the system"s vulnerability is much mitigated by its unique nature as the largest and most innovative economy in the world.
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Sytems Vulnerable Because Of Structural Economic Weaknesses
In some countries, such as Egypt and Cyprus, excessive credit growth combines with structural economic weaknesses to creat a fragile environment. The Lebanese banking system, in contrast, is contracting lending, but is vulnerable to asset quality deterioration because of a persistent fiscal imbalance in an already weakened economy.
- IMF 기자회견문(전문)
- PRESS CONFERENCE
(MOFE, July 14, 2000)
Opening Statement
David T.Coe
IMF Senior Resident Representative
As you know Minister Lee, Hun-Jai and Governor Chon, Chol-Hwan have signed a letter of intent(LOI) addressed to Mr.Horst Kohler, Managing Director of the IMF:
◇The LOI and the Menmorandum of Economic Politics attached to the letter were discussed with the government when the IMF mission was here during the first two weeks of June. The Fund mission worked closely with staff of the World Bank, particularly in the area of corporate restructuring, as we have throughout the program.
◇The LOI is for the final review of the IMF program with Korea, which ends on December 3, 2000. The letter of intent and a report by the IMF staff will be discussed by the Fund"s Executive Board in late August. The review of the program is not complete until it is approved by the Executive Board in that meeting.
Before taking questions, I would like to briefly highlight a number of important points in the LOI and the Memorandum of Economic Politics.
◇First, the Korean ecomony continues to perform strongly and the economic outlook is very positive. The conduct of monetary and fiscal policies has been appropriate, and both are contribution positively to robust growth and low inflation.
◇In the area of social protection, policies are being redirected away from short-term emergency measures toward a longer-term strategy that preserves incentives, such as the new livelihood protection law.
With the macroeconomic situation in solid shape, much of the LOI deals with issues related to financial sector restructuring.
◇The government indicates in the LOI that it is committed to withdrawing from its involvement in the commercial banking system that resulted from the 1997 crisis. To this end, the government will announce a strategy to divest itself of the shares in the commercial banks obtained in the context of recapitalizing the banking system during the crisis.
◇The government has taken steps to create clean banks based on forward-looking criteria for loan classification and provisioning, including loans to companies in workout programs. The data on the level of non-performing loans and necessary provisioning released by the FSS on June 30 were an important step forward in that forward-looking criteria were fully applied to all loans. While it will take time to gain full expertise in applying forward-looking criteria, loan classification requirements have clearly moved much closer to international best practice. The figures released on June 30 indicate that additional provisioning requirements are manageable, which should bolster market confidence.
◇Now it is up to the banks, under the supervision of the FSS/FSC, to exercise continued vigilance and ensure that asset quality is preserved. Thus will help to convince markets that the known credit risks have been provisioned for, and that banks are making operating profits sufficient to meet any new credit costs in the immediate future.
◇Full disclosure by banks of their financial condition, together with improved auditing and governance, will be necessary if depositors are to be able to impose market discipline on the banks in an informed way, which will be necessary once partial deposit insurance is restored on January 1 of next year.
◇In the investment trust sector, the move-to-market valuation has gone relatively smoothly because the amounts invested in book-value funds had declined considerably. The ITC industry needs to move from a quasi-banking operation to genuine fund management, where fund managers act in the interest of investors, and where investors bear the risks. Important steps have been taken to improve governance and disclosure, and the supervisory authorities will need to ensure that they are forcefully implemented.
Financial sector reforms are closely interwined with corporate reforms, since banks are only as strong as their borrowers.
◇Continued vigilance by banks over the quality of their balance sheets is not only important for the banks, it is also critical for corporate restructuring because it means that banks will exercise market discipline on the corporate sector.
◇Further corporate sector reform and restructuring are essential to restore the health and competitiveness of the corporate sector and to ensure that improvements in financial institutions" balance sheets are durable. Market discipline imposed by shareholders will be important to discourage the chaebol from ill-advised and excessive investments financed by debt.
◇Successful corporate reform will require the strict application of prudential regulations, enhanced risk management techniques, elimination of anti-competitive practices, insolvency reform, and improved corporate governance.
In closing, let me say that Korea deserves well functioning and well governed, worldclass financial and corporate sectors. We believe that the government"s program, summarized in the LOI and MEP and supported by the IMF and the World Bank are clearly moving Korea in that direction. The Korean people have come a long way and worked hard to recover from the recent crisis. To ensure sustained future prosperity and improve the functioning of the financial and corporate sectors.
Thank you. I will be happy to take questions now.
