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- 진념 재경장관 아시안 월스트리트저널 기고문(원문)
- Korea’s Approach to Corporate Restructuring
It is now a consensus view that the main cause of the Korean financial crisis of 1997 was a lack of market discipline and the malfunctioning of the market system rather than macroeconomic imbalances. Thus, the Korean government’s role in establishing a well-functioning market system is imperative, not only for a quick turnaround of the Korean economy but also for convincing, sustainable growth.
Once such a system is solidly put into place, the government can then take a backseat and let market forces prevail. Its role at this mature stage should be limited to that of surveillance and ensuring that market discipline is upheld without any exceptions. In the initial stages of restructuring, however, prompt, speedy restructuring becomes a distant reality in the absence of government’s active role. Korea’s corporate restructuring has been proceeding exactly along this path.
It is true that the rapid recovery of the past two years, which earned Korea praise from the international community, has led to a false sense of complacency. Political support for many tough initial reform measures has weakened. However, Korea has not yet lost its flexibility, its ability to learn quickly and its readiness to implement reforms.
In fact, the government has become more serious about structural reforms in the financial, corporate and public sectors, especially since August. It has provided a new impetus to reform efforts, witnessed, for example, by putting Daewoo Motor into court receivership, accelerating the privatization process of public enterprises such as Korea Electric Power Corp. and by consolidating the commercial banking system through financial holding companies as well as mergers.
While the concerns of foreign investors are understandable, I would like to clarify that Korea’s corporate restructuring is fundamentally different from the past attempts to improve the business sector, particularly with regard to the chaebols. The lessons of Daewoo group suggest that no chaebol is too big to fail. This principle was confirmed again when creditor banks firmly refused new loan requests from the construction firms Woobang and Dong-Ah.
Recognizing an investor concern that Korea is reluctant to cut loose its “zombie” companies, creditor banks have recently disclosed a list of 52 non-viable companies that need to be placed under court receivership or liquidation programs. This is an important achievement toward establishing a market system in which market forces monitor the viability of companies and weed out non-viable companies in an efficient manner.
If the government in the past directly intervened in the fate of the companies, it is now empowering financial institutions to take on the role of monitoring the financial health of their borrowers and taking appropriate measures to ensure their soundness. This can further be facilitated by the presence of a continuous exit system, in which non-viable companies are removed from the market in an expeditious manner.
For example, as of the end of 1999 the Korean government has made financial institutions adopt a more rigorous asset-classification standard called “Forward Looking Criteria.” With the FLC system in place, Korean banks now have a clear concept of loss-cut and are actually taking actions since their potential losses are already reflected in their books. Sufficient accumulation of the loss provisioning induces lenders to be more aggressive in taking actions toward non-viable borrowers.
The deregulation of mergers and acquisitions is another example. Hostile M&A have already been legalized. Even leveraged buy-out schemes will be allowed from this year. M&A procedures will be further streamlined, in line with international norms.
I cannot leave out the importance of strengthened corporate governance in the process of Korea’s corporate restructuring. The Korean government has made it mandatory for listed companies with large assets to appoint half of their board of directors from outside the company. It also obligated those firms to set up an independent audit committee.
With these measures fully implemented, Korea should be able to fast-forward the transition to a market-driven economy. The obligation by law and regulation is inevitable in order to move toward clear, clean management, which in turn will speed up the changes in business practices and the mindset of management.
I would like to assure investors looking to Korea that the Korean corporate sector, including the chaebol system, is being reshaped for the better. Among the 30 largest chaebol groups in 1997, only 16 remain today as a result of sweeping restructuring.
The emergence of a liquidity crisis at Hyundai Engineering & Construction, which has not been able to get financial support from other affiliates of the Hyundai Group, is another clear reflection of Korea’s changing business environment. The company’s liquidity trouble would not have surfaced under the old system, which formed big business groups to shield their troubles with cross-debt guarantees and intra-group transactions, both of which are now banned.
Of course, corporate restructuring presents many challenging tasks ahead. The recent financial market instability indicates that market mechanisms are still weak. Investor confidence has also suffered from recent developments, mainly because of the economic slowdown and resurgence of labor union activities.
Again, I would like to assure that the Korean labor movement of today is fundamentally different from those of yesterday. Gone are the militant, sometimes violent movements of yesterday. The current labor strife is void of violence or any disturbance to public order.
The labor unions seem to be aware that only through the successful completion of structural reforms will there be more jobs tomorrow. A case in point is Daewoo Motor, which was once one of Korea’s more militant unions, but which has recently agreed to staff reductions as asked by creditor banks.
It should also be noted that the social environment surrounding the Korean labor market has improved significantly over the past three years. The social safety net has been dramatically expanded, and job replacement and training programs, which were non-existent in pre-crisis Korea, exist today.
As for the recent slowdown, no economy is immune to business cycles. We all know that double-digit economic growth is generally not sustainable. Therefore the recent slowdown itself can be understood as the normal cyclical rebalance and adjustment to the tune of a global economic slowdown. Fortunately so, the recent economic slowdown, financial instability and unfavorable external environment all work to renew Korea’s reform drive.
The Korean government fully recognizes that the successful completion of the ongoing restructuring is the only means for Korea to lay a basis for sustainable growth.
This is why the government has announced a “Second Round Restructuring Plan” with a target date. It is intended to give a clear signal to market participants about the government’s policy priorities. However, it should not be interpreted as a final date of completion of the restructuring process. Successful restructuring in the United Kingdom and the United States has shown that the process is lengthy and oftentimes painstaking.
The Korean government will not waiver from its goal of establishing a well-functioning market-driven system and providing a transparent and internationally compatible business environment. These objectives are clearly reflected in the new year’s basic policy directives: inducing a market-friendly financial and corporate reforms; developing new opportunities for economic growth and capitalizing on the digital economy; strengthening the social safety net and pursuing balanced growth across regions within Korea; and improving the market sentiments.
I remain fairly confident that Korea’s economic situation will improve in response to the deepening and acceleration of these initiatives. And the government has the clear vision and will to put them into action.
- MSCI가 정의한 "FREE FLOAT" (원문)
- 다음은 MSCI가 새로 연 "MSCI Float & coverage 웹사이트"에서 밝힌 프리 플로트(fee-float) 산정방식의 정의입니다.
MSCI FREE FLOAT-ADJUSTMENT DEFINITION
MSCI will adjust the market capitalization of a company’s equity securities to reflect their level of free float. MSCI defines the free float as the proportion of share capital that is deemed to be available for purchase in the public equity markets by international investors. In practice, limitations on the investment opportunities available to the international investors include:
ㅁStrategic shareholdings: Stakes held by private or public shareholders whose investment objectives suggest that those holdings are not likely to be traded in the market. In practice, disclosure requirements generally do not permit a clear determination of these investment objectives. Therefore, MSCI classifies hareholdings as strategic or non-strategic based on a categorization of investor types.
ㅁLimits on share ownership for foreigners: Limits on the proportion of a security’s share capital that is authorized for purchase by non-domestic investors. Where they exist, these foreign share-ownership limits are generally set by law, government regulations, or company by-laws.
ㅁOther foreign investment restrictions: Investment restrictions, other than those described above, which materially limit the ability of international investors to freely invest in a particular equity market. There is typically no simple way to account for these limitations in a benchmark, as these restrictions tend to be more subtle and complex, and may affect different market participants in different ways.
Shareholding classification guidelines
MSCI primarily classifies shareholdings as strategic or non-strategic based on a categorization of investor types.
ㅁStrategic shareholders: The following investor types are generally considered as strategic and their shareholdings in a company are not included in that company’s equity capital to determine its free float:
=Governments: Shares owned by governments and affiliated entities. Please refer to the specific guidelines described below for government agencies and government-related investment funds.
=Corporations: Shares owned by corporations, including treasury shares owned by the
company itself, except when the treasury shares are excluded from the number of shares outstanding. Please refer to specific guidelines for banks.
=Management and Board Members: Shares owned by members of the company’s management or Board of Directors, including shares owned by individuals or families that are related to or closely affiliated with members of the company’s management, Board of
Directors, or founding members deemed to be insiders.
=Employee Stock Ownership Plans (ESOPs): Shares owned in ESOPs during the lock-up
period.
ㅁNon-Strategic shareholders: The following investor types are generally considered as non-strategic and their shareholdings in a company are included in that company’s equity capital to determine its free float:
=Individuals: Shares owned by individuals, excluding shares owned by individuals or
families that are related to or closely affiliated with members of the company’s
management, Board of Directors or founding members deemed to be insiders, and,
excluding those shareholdings held by individuals whose significant size suggests that they are strategic in nature.
=Investment funds, mutual funds or unit trusts: Shares owned in investment funds,
mutual funds and unit trusts, including shares owned in passively managed funds.
=Pension funds: Shares owned in employee pension funds, excluding shares of the
employing company, its subsidiaries or affiliates.
=Insurance companies: In principle, the investment objective of portfolio holdings of
insurance companies is non-strategic. When there are reasons to believe that an insurance company’s shareholding is strategic, it will not be included in free float.
=Social security funds: Shares owned in social security funds, unless the fund’s
management is deemed to exert influence over the management of the company.
=Venture capital funds: Shares owned in venture capital funds, unless a specific
investment is deemed to be strategic in nature.
In the event that the above categories should not appropriately capture the nature of a specific shareholding, its classification as strategic or non-strategic will be determined based on a more extensive analysis. In particular, the following guidelines will be followed:
=Banks. Shareholdings by banks are considered as strategic, excluding, when identifiable, specific shareholdings that are deemed to be non-strategic.
=Nominees or trustees: Shareholdings registered in the name of a nominee or trustee are classified as strategic or non-strategic based on an analysis of who is the ultimate beneficial owner of the shares, according to the above definitions.
=Government agencies and government-related investment funds: Shareholdings of
government agencies and government-related investment funds are classified based on an analysis of the objective of the investment.
=Shares placed in IPOs with special incentives: Shares that are placed in an IPO and
that include meaningful incentives to hold the shares for a specific period of time, are classified as strategic until those incentives expire.
=ADRs and GDRs: Shares that are deposited to back the issuance of ADRs and GDRs
are classified as non-strategic, unless it is established that a specific stake held in ADRs or GDRs is strategic in nature.
Calculation of a security’s free float-adjusted market capitalization
As a general rule, MSCI calculates the free float of a security as its total number of shares outstanding less shareholdings classified as strategic and shares otherwise restricted from trading by international investors. However, the determination of the corresponding free float-adjusted market capitalization is dependent on the nature of the limitations on free float.
In all cases, the calculation is based solely on publicly available shareholding information obtained from multiple information sources. For each security, all available shareholdings are considered where public data is available, regardless of size.
ㅁCalculation in the case of a security which is not subject to a foreign ownership limit or other foreign investment restrictions
=Strategic shareholding(%)=(Number of shares classified as strategic/Total number of shares outstanding)
=Free float (%) = 100% - Strategic shareholding (%)
=For constituents with free float greater than or equal to 15%, the security’s Inclusion Factor is equal to its estimated free float, rounded-up to the closest 5%.
=Securities with free float less than 15% are typically not eligible for inclusion in the indices. However, in exceptional cases, where including such a security would significantly improve the index’s ability to accurately represent the investment opportunities in that country or industry, the security may be included in the indices with an Inclusion Factor equal to its estimated free float rounded to the closest 1%.
=Free float-adjusted market capitalization = Inclusion Factor * total market capitalization
=Examples:
Company A Company B
Total number of shares outstanding 10,000,000 10,000,000
Number of shares classified as strategic 4100,000 8,780,000
Strategic shareholding (%) 41.0% 87.8%
Free float (%) 59.0% 12.2%
Inclusion Factor 0.60 0.12
ㅁCalculation in the case of a security which is subject to a foreign ownership limit
Number of shares held by foreign strategic investors
=Foreign strategic shareholding(%)=----------------------------------------
Total number of shares outstanding
=Free float available to foreign investors (%) is equal to the lesser of:
-the free float, calculated as: 100% - strategic shareholding (including both foreign and domestic strategic shareholders) (%)
- the foreign ownership limit less the foreign strategic shareholding (%)
=For constituents whose free float available to foreign investors is greater than or equal to 15%, the security’s Inclusion Factor is equal to the lesser of:
-the estimated free float available to foreign investors rounded-up to the closest 5%;
-the foreign ownership limit rounded to the closest 1%.
-Securities with a free float available to foreign investors of less than 15% are typically not eligible for inclusion in the indices. However, in exceptional cases, where including such a security would significantly improve the index’s ability to accurately represent the investment opportunities in that country or industry, the security may be included in the indices with an Inclusion Factor equal to its estimated free float available to foreign investors rounded to the closest 1%.
-Free float-adjusted market capitalization = Inclusion Factor * total market capitalization
-Examples:
Company C Company D Company E
Total number of shares outstanding 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000
All shares classified as strategic 8,100,000 4,000,000 4,000,000
- those held by foreigners as strategic 1,000,000 1,000,000 -
Strategic shareholding (%) 81.0% 40.0% 40.0%
Free float (%) 19.0% 60.0% 60.0%
Foreign Ownership Limit 33.3% 33.3% 33.3%
Foreign strategic shareholding (%) 10.0% 10.0% 0.0%
Foreign Ownership Limit less the Foreign
strategic shareholding (%) 23.3% 23.3% 33.3%
Free float available to
foreign investors(%) 19.0% 23.3% 33.3%
Inclusion Factor 0.20 0.25 0.33
ㅁIn the case of a security which is subject to other foreign investment restrictions
In the case where other foreign investment restrictions exist, which materially limit the ability of international investors to freely invest in equity markets, an additional Limited Investability Factor may be applied. There is typically no simple way to account for these types of investability limitations in a benchmark as they tend to be subtle and complex, and may affect different market participants in different ways. Therefore, where warranted, the Limited Investability Factor will be determined based on an extensive case-by-case analysis.
- MSCI 지수비중 산출변경 발표 보도자료(원문)
- 다음은 MSCI가 10일 발표한 지수비중 산출변경 발표 보도자료 원문입니다.
MSCI TO ADJUST FOR FREE FLOAT AND TO INCREASE COVERAGE TO 85%
Geneva, December 10, 2000.
MSCI announced today that it will adjust all its equity indices for free float, and that it will increase the target market representation of its Standard Index series from 60% to 85% coverage. The combined changes will be implemented in two separate phases, as of the close of November 30, 2001 and as of the close of May 31, 2002, respectively. MSCI plans to publish index constituents and their Inclusion Factors
based on the enhanced methodology on or before June 30, 2001, and will begin calculating a provisional index series shortly thereafter. Details of these enhancements to MSCI’s equity index construction methodology are available on MSCI’s web site (www.msci.com).
These changes are designed to maintain the MSCI equity indices’ long established characteristics of investability, diversification and accurate market representation as the world’s equity markets and investment processes continue to evolve. As such, the move to free float-weighted constituents and broader coverage does not represent a new index series but is a continuation of the current series.
MSCI will provide uniquely accurate and reliable free float-weighted equity indices. “The quality of a free float-weighted index is particularly dependent on the quality of the underlying research. MSCI has the largest and most experienced research staff in the index business, and therefore, it has the resources and the skills to ensure that the analysis of thousands of individual securities around the world is as accurate as it can be,” says Henry Fernandez, President and CEO of MSCI.
MSCI’s Free Float-Adjustment Methodology MSCI defines free float as total shares outstanding excluding shares held by strategic investors such as governments, corporations, controlling shareholders, and management, and shares subject to foreign ownership restrictions.
Under MSCI’s free float-adjustment methodology, a constituent’s Inclusion Factor is equal to its estimated free float rounded-up to the closest 5% for constituents with free float equal to or exceeding 15%. For example, a constituent security with a free float of 23.2% will be included in the index at 25% of its total market capitalization.
Increase in Target Market Representation to 85% MSCI will increase its coverage in the MSCI Standard Index series from 60% of total market capitalization to 85%
of free float-adjusted market capitalization, within each industry group within each country. Given trends such as increased market concentration, the increase in coverage will provide greater diversification and representation of market opportunities.
Publication of Constituent Data and Implementation In order to assist market participants in preparing for these changes, MSCI plans to publish on or before June 30, 2001, the index constituents for each of MSCI’s Standard country indices and their Inclusion Factors under the enhanced methodology. In addition, MSCI will begin publishing a provisional index series based on the enhanced methodology shortly thereafter. The provisional series may be used by clients who wish to measure performance based on the enhanced methodology ahead of MSCI’s official implementation schedule.
MSCI has opted for implementation of the combined changes in two phases. In the first phase, effective as of the close of November 30, 2001, MSCI will implement approximately half of the change resulting from the free float-adjustment for all existing index constituents and, simultaneously, include all the new constituents resulting from the increase in coverage to 85% at approximately half of their free float-adjusted market capitalization. The remaining adjustments to fully implement the enhanced methodology will take place in the second phase, effective as of the close of May 31, 2002.
Previously Announced Country Changes MSCI previously announced a change of status for the MSCI Greece, Egypt and Morocco Indices, to become effective as of May 31, 2001. In light of today’s announcement, these indices will be rebalanced as of that date in accordance with the enhanced methodology for free float adjustment and increased coverage. Effective as of the close of May 31, 2001, the newly rebalanced Greece index will enter MSCI’s Developed Markets index series and the newly rebalanced Egypt and Morocco indices will be added to the MSCI EMF (Emerging Markets Free) index series.
Separately, MSCI announced today its decision on the potential change in the inclusion weight of the MSCI Taiwan Index from 80% to 100%, also scheduled for May 31, 2001. For further details please refer to today’s separate announcement on the MSCI Taiwan Index. For further information on MSCI indices or MSCI data, please visit our web site at www.msci.com or contact:
Evert-Jan ten Brundel, London + 44 20 7425 8661
Dorsey Horowitz, New York + 1 212 762 5779
Bonnie Chan, Hong Kong + 852 2848 5380
Akihisa Suzuki, Tokyo + 813 5424 5488
Daniel Guthrie, Luther Pendragon Ltd. + 44 20 7353 1500
This information has been prepared solely for informational purposes, and is not a recommendation to participate in any particular trading strategy and may not be relied on as such. The user of this information assumes the entire risk of any use made of the information provided herein.
Neither MSCI nor any other party makes any express or implied warranties or representations with respect to this information (or the results to be obtained by the use thereof), and MSCI hereby expressly disclaims all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any of this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall MSCI or any other party have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, punitive, consequential or any other damages (including lost profits) even if notified of the possibility of such damages.
MSCI is a leading provider of global indices and benchmark related products and services to investors worldwide. MSCI’s editorial decisions regarding its index construction methodology and construction of its indices are made independently of any third party, including its shareholders, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co., a global financial services firm and a market leader in securities, asset management and credit services, and The Capital Group Companies, Inc., a global investment management group.
Morgan Stanley Capital International, MSCI, ACWI, EAFE, EMF and all other service marks referred to in this press release are the exclusive property of MSCI and its affiliates.
- 코 IMF 서울사무소장, 기자간담회 발표문(원문)
- PRESS CONFERENCE
(MOFE, Decomber 4, 2000)
Opening Statement
David T. Coe
IMF Senoior Resident Representative
Korea requested support from the International Monetary Fund to help deal with the economic crisis on November 21, 1997. A three-year stand-by arrangement was approved by the IMF"s Executive Board on December 4, 1997, and this program ended yesterday.
The financial aspects of the program were as follows:
ㆍThe IMF financing was for a total of $21 billion. Korea made ten drawings, totaling $19½ billion, under the arrangement. The last drawing was made in May 1999. Korea was eligible to make six additional drawings, totaling $1½ billion, but decided to forego these in view of the strengthening of its foreign reserve position.
ㆍOf the amount drawn, about $13½billion was under special facility to assist countries facing exceptional blance of payments problems created by large short-term financing needs. The entire amount of this loan was repaid by September 1999, nine months ahead of schedule. The goverrnment has announced that the remaining $6 billion of outstanding IMF loans will also be repaid in advance.
ㆍThe total financing package agreed in December 1997 was for $58 billion, the largest financing package in IMF history. In addition to the IMF"s own resources, $10 billion was available from the World Bank, $4 billion from the Asian Development Bank, and a "second line of defense" pledge of $23 billion from individual countries.
ㆍShortly after the IMF-supported program was approved, efforts began in December, 1997 to coordinate an accord with foreign banks to roll over Korea"s short-term external debt; these efforts culminated in the signing of the debt restructuring agreement in March 1998.
During the program, the IMF, together with the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, worked closely with the government to develop a strategy to overcome the crisis and to provide policy advice during the implementation of the program.
ㆍThe objectives of Korea"s crisis resolution strategy were, first and foremost, to restore confidence and stabilize financial markets; and second, to lay the foundation for a sustained recovery in the real economy and lower the chances of future crises. The policy strategy was three-pronged, combining macroeconomic policy adjustment, structural reforms, and financing.
ㆍMonetary policies focused on a temporary interest rate hike aimed at stabilizing the won and avoiding a depreciation-inflation spiral. After financial stability was restored in early 1998, the overnight call rate was progressively reduced to below its pre-crisis level by July 1998 and below 5 percent by March 1999. An expansionary fiscal stance was adopted in early 1998 to mitigate the impact of the inevitable recession.
ㆍThe government recognized that the smooth implementation of its policies would require broad social consensus A Tripartite Accord involving labor, business, and the government paved the way for the adoption of important measures that created a more flexible labor market, attracted foreign investment, and exposed corporations more fully to market forces.
ㆍA working social safety net was put in place to provide support for those who had been made redundant, thus facilitating their return to the workforce, and to provide a minimum level of income for the most needy.
ㆍStructural reforms - including many measures that had previously been discussed widely in Korea - were adopted to boost investor confidence and enhance the credibility of the stabilization program. These reforms addressed key weaknesses that were at the heart of Korea"s problems, including a financial sector with little cormmercial orientation and limited ability to price risk, and an overleveraged corporate sector that had invested heavily to gain market share with little regard for profitability.
Korea"s spectacular economic recovery and the marked reduction in external vulnerability are evidence that the policies adopted by the Korean government, with support from the IMF, were the right ones.
ㆍKorea"s macroeconomic fundamentals have improved sharply since the financial crisis. The economy is again poised to grow at near double-digit rates in 2000 following last year"s 11 percent growth; the unemployment rate has been reduced; inflation is relatively low; exports remain strong; foreign direct investment and portfolio capital inflows have increased sharply to historic highs; the won strengthened substantially after losing half its value early in the crisis; foreign reserves have reached record levels; and, supporting the recovery, fiscal policy is now firmly focused on consolidation.
ㆍA wide range of structural reforms have also made Korea"s economy more open, competitive, and market driven. Substantial progress has been made in stabilizing the financial system; addressing corporate distress; strengthening the institutional framework for coporate govermance and finacial sector supervision; liberalizing capital markets and foreign investment; enhancing transparency; and creating an environment where market discipline plays an increasingly important role.
ㆍThese are impressive achivements and they surpass those in other crisis-affected economies. The three-year IMF-supported program has thus been very successful and the goals of the program have been met. Moreover, the reforms initiated over the past three years will continue to yield benefits for years to come, and in many cases the benefits will increase as practices and ways of doing business change.
ㆍWhile much has been accomplished, the reforms art not complete, as highilghted by remaining weaknesses in the corporate and financial sectors. Restructuring of the magntude needed in Korea will inevitably be a multiyear effort, extending well beyond the three-year time frame of the IMF-supported program.
Despite the accomplishments of the last three years, both damestic and foreign sentiment about Korea has deteriorated in recent months.
ㆍ The decline in confidence is largely related to the perception of a lack of tangible resuits in corporate restructuring and worrries that a large part of this sector is still saddled with cash flow and poor profitability.
ㆍFailure to address the remaining problems could jeopardize what has already been
achieved and adversely affect Korea"s longer-term capacity to grow. The government
recognizes this, and has been redoubling reform efforts since September. The IMF"s
advice about measure to strengthen the reform process are contained in a statement
distributed at the conclusion of the recent IMF staff visit on November 14, which is
available on the MOFE website.
There are also concerns and much comment in the press about a possible second crisis.
ㆍI believe the probability of another crisis like the 1997-98 crisis is very low; external reserves have been rebuilt; short-term debt has been reduced; the current account is in surplus; and although the won has depreciated against the U.S dollar recently, this has been in the context of a general weakening of Asian currencies, and investors still remain bullish on the won over the lung term.
ㆍThis does not mean that the buisness cycle is dead in Korea. As in all countries,
periods of stong economic growth will be followed by periods of slower growth The
Korean economy has recovered exceptionally rapidly from the crisis during the past
two years, and it is normal, and indeed welcome, that growth will slow next year to a more sustainable pace.
ㆍThere is no doubt that the short-term outlook for the Korean economy is now much
weaker than it was six months ago. Much of this has to do with external factors
beyond Korea"s control: higher oil prices; the decline in world stock markets; and
prospects for slower growth in the U.S. economy. The Novemver Consensus forecast,
which is the average of about 20 private sector forecasts, was for economic growth of 5.7 percent in 2001, compared with a forecast of abort 6 percent six months earlier. Most estimates of potential growth in Korea are about 6 percent.
ㆍThe most recent indicators suggest that the economy is slowing. I believe that the
December Consensus will revise downward the projections for the Korean economy next year, with the weakness largely concentrated in the first half of the year and the economy strengthening in the second half.
ㆍIt is important to remember that the 1997-98 crisis was also, in part, a crisis of
confidence. While being realistic and aware of the downside risks, we should also be
careful not to exaggerate the likelihood of another crisis. The Korean people should
consider what they have accomplished over the past 40 years, including overcoming
the recent crisis, and this should give them confidence in the future of the Korean
economy.
Thank-you.
- MCI 관련 KOL의 입장(전문-국·영문)
- [국문]MCI 관련 KOL의 입장
MCI 진승현씨는 코리아온라인의 어떠한 직책도 맡은 바 없으며 코리안온라인의 경영은 물론 설립에 어떠한 주도적인 역할을 하지 않았습니다. 그는 단지 투자이익을 목적으로 코리아온라인 지분 13.3%를 획득한 단순한 투자자에 불과합니다.
코리아온라인은 1998년 2월 홍콩 주식시장에 상장된 영국계 금융그룹인 iRegent를 최대 주주로 하여 설립되었습니다. 현재 코리아온라인은 리젠트증권(전 대유증권), 리젠트자산운용, 리젠트종금(전 경수종금), 리젠트화재(전 해동화재), ㈜코리아온라인(온라인 사이트), 일은증권(11월15일 정부로부터 인수 완료) 등 한국에서 5개의 금융기관을 경영하고 있습니다.
코리아온라인은 한국의 다른 기업 인수를 위한 자금을 마련하고자 외부투자가로부터 수차에 걸쳐 증자를 받았으며 MCI코리아는 1999년 7월 코리아온라인에 대한 2차 증자시 참여한 투자자의 하나입니다.
코리아온라인은 올해 초 MCI코리아가 사업에 지장을 주고 있다는 판단하에 해당 지분을 다른 해외투자자에게 매각하기로 번복불가를 조건으로 합의하고 이를 금융감독원에 통보한 바 있습니다.
현재 문제시 되고 있는 리젠트종금으로부터의 대출금은 전액 담보대출로, 담보물은 대출금액을 충분히 상회하며 리젠트증권은 이미 대출금에 대한 대손충담금을 적립하여 손실발생 가능 금액은 140억원으로 감소되었습니다. 이같은 손실가능금액은 저희 코리아온라인 영업매출 총액의 1%에 불과한 것입니다.
또한 이러한 대출금과 유관 대손충담금은 각 회사들의 외부 회계법인들에 의해 승인되었고 이미 7월24일 금융감독원에 보고되었습니다. 금융감독원은 대출금을 감안하더라도 리젠트종금의 BIS 비율은 2000년 9월말 현재 22%임을 승인했으며 이는 한국내 금융기관 중 가장 높은 수준입니다.
진승현씨 관련사에 대한 대출은 코리아온라인 계열사의 과거 경영진에 의해 내부규정 및 관련법규, 그리고 이사회의 결정에 반하여 실행되었습니다.
저희 코리안온라인은 내부 감사를 통해 이같은 사실을 밝혀내고 관련 경영진을 전원 해임하고 이후 내부통제규정을 더욱 강화하였습니다.
코리아온라인은 금융당국의 진승현씨 조사과정에 모든 협조를 아끼지 않았습니다. 코리아온라인은 진승현씨 관련사 대출로 인한 피해자이며 진승현씨는 저희 회사의 경영에 일체 관여하지 않았을 뿐만 아니라 기타 다른 어떤 거래관계도 전혀 없음을 다시 한번 밝힙니다.
이번 MCI코리아 보도와 관련하여 고객 여러분께 심려를 끼쳐 드린 점, 깊이 사과 드립니다. 저희 임직원 일동은 이후에도 지속적으로 고객 여러분께 최상의 서비스를 제공해 드릴 것을 약속 드립니다.
코리안온라인 사장
로빈 윌리
[영문] KoreaOnline
Press Announcement concerning MCI and Jin Seong-Hyun
We understand that Mr Jin Seong-Hyun is under investigation by the authorities for various illegal financial activities related to his company, MCI. Although we are not fully aware of the details of such allegations, we would like to clarify Mr. Jin and MCI’s relationship with KoreaOnline and the iRegent Group.
The iRegent Group established KoreaOnline in February 1998 when iRegent Group acquired a controlling interest in Daeyu Securities Co., Ltd, since renamed Regent Securities Co., Ltd. Since that time, KoreaOnline has raised capital from outside investors to finance the acquisition of further businesses in Korea.
Today, KoreaOnline controls six companies in Korea: Regent Securities (formerly Daeyu Securities), Regent Asset Management, Regent Merchant Bank (formerly Kyungsu Merchant Bank), Regent Insurance (formerly Haedong Insurance), KoreaOnline Co. Ltd (the newly established online distribution arm of the group) and, finally, the recent purchase of Ileun Securities from the government, just completed on November 15th. In total, the shareholders capital of the KoreaOnline Group of companies exceeds US$500 million and annual revenues are just under US$1 billion.
Since the IMF crisis, iRegent Group and its associated foreign investors, has brought more than US$650 million of new money into Korea. This money has been invested in many businesses both in the financial and non-financial areas. KoreaOnline is 46.2% owned by its major shareholder, the iRegent Group, which is a public company listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and 38.4% owned by major international financial institutions. MCI owns 15.4% of KoreaOnline.
In July 1999, Mr Jin Seong-Hyun’s company, MCI, was one of the investors in the second funding round of KoreaOnline. This stake will be diluted to 13.3% shortly as a result of the recent capital increase. Although it was intended that Mr Jin Seong-Hyun would assist KoreaOnline in its expansion in Korea, by early 2000, it became clear that this was not possible and KoreaOnline decided to separate from Mr. Jin. KoreaOnline informed its Korean regulator that it was keen to cease all relations with Mr. Jin.
Before that separation, companies related to Mr. Jin had borrowed some money from KoreaOnline group companies. Since May 2000, the exposure has been rectified and the total exposure of the group is now just US$12m, or 0.24% of shareholders funds. Taking into account these loans, the current BIS ratio of KoreaOnline’s Merchant Bank is 22%, as certified by the bank’s regulator, the highest of all banks in Korea.
The loans were made to Mr Jin’s companies by former management of subsidiary companies. Following an internal review at the time, which revealed that these loans were made against internal rules, the relevant management was immediately suspended and later dismissed.
KoreaOnline has been aware of the authorities investigation of Mr. Jin for some months and has been helping them with that investigation. KoreaOnline has had no contact with Mr. Jin for sometime.
Although we deeply regret ever accepting Mr Jin as a shareholder in KoreaOnline, and the adverse publicity this has caused us, the overall financial impact is negligible and this will not stop our expansion plans in Korea. Having just completed purchasing of control of Ileun Securities on November 15th, we have indicated our interest, to the authorities, in further acquisitions and have been analysing a number of such opportunities.
KoreaOnline is an integrated financial services company comprising operations in securities, asset management, insurance and banking. In addition to the traditional operations of these businesses, these services are being further delivered through the internet platform at www.iregent.com
For any further enquiries, please contact:
Peter Everington, Deputy Chairman &8211; pde@iregentgroup.com
Robin Willi, Chief Executive Officer &8211; rwilli@iregent.com
Andrew Ashworth &8211; aashworth@iregent.com
Tel: (+82 2) 360 3551
24th November 2000 @ 9pm
- 포철/옥션 등 삼성증권 모닝 미팅(14일)
- 다음은 14일자 삼성증권 기업뉴스 속보입니다.
[ 뉴스코멘트]
* FTSE 종목교체
FTSE 인터내셔널에 따르면, 3/4분기 지수 조정결과 FTSE All-World지수에 편입되어 있는 한국종목들 중 5개 종목이 제외되는 대신, 신규로 5개의 종목이 지수산정에 포함될 예정.
신규로 편입되는 종목들은 거래소의 삼성증권, LG투자증권, 현대중공업, KOSDAQ의 한통프리텔, 한통엠닷컴이며, 제외되는 종목들은 삼성중공업, 현대건설, 대우증권, 대한항공, 대우중공업 임.
FTSE 지수가 MSCI 지수에 비하여 한국시장에서 중요성이 떨어지나, FTSE의 지수를 벤치마크로 삼고 있는 영국계 펀드들의 자금유입이 최근 증가하고 있는 것을 감안, 신규로 FTSE에 편입되는 종목들에게는 긍정적인 효과로 작용할 것으로 판단됨.
금감원에 따르면, 8월 한달동안, 영국계 자금의 주식 순 매수는 4,191억원 이었으며, 미국은 2,729억원을 순매수 하였음. 또한, KOSDAQ시장에서, 영국은 388억원의 순매수를 기록하였으며, 반면 미국은 304억원의 순매도를 기록하였음.
* 포항제철 투자의견: BUY
국내 언론에 따르면, 동사가 9월로 예정된 파워콤 지분 매각입찰 참여를 통해 경영권을 인수할 계획이라고 발표함. 이번 9월 입찰에서 파워콤 지분 30%(7월 입찰가 32,200원 기준 1.5조원 규모)를 매각할 것으로 보임.
동사측은 파워콤 경영권 인수에 관심없다고 밝혀옴.
금융부담과 파워콤 수익성이 철강사업보다 낮음을 감안하면, 포철의 파워콤 인수계획은 동사 주가에 부정적으로 작용할 전망.
* 한국통신 투자의견: BUY
국내 보도에 따르면, 한국통신이 대우그룹으로부터 주당 2만원 가량에 인수한 약 450만주의 한국통신프리텔 주식을 지난 6월에 자사 직원에게 같은 가격에 매각하였다고 밝혀짐.
이때 한국통신프리텔 주식은 장외시장에서 약 46,000원에 거래되고 있었음. 이 거래로 한국통신은 1,170억원의 잠재적 이익을 무상으로 자사의 직원에게 이전하였음.
* 주택은행, 미국에서 ADR 발행 계획 발표
신주발행이 아니라 GDR을 ADR로 전환을 통해 상장을 추진할 계획임. 이는 기업투명성 제고에 기여할 보이며 향후 주가에 긍 정적인 영향이 기대됨.
* 금감원, 한미은행, Carlyle-JP Morgan 투자 승인
금융감독위원회는 8일 미국 금융그룹인 JP모건-칼라일 컨소시엄이 한미은행 보통주 17.9%를 주식예탁증서(DR)로 주당 6,800원씩 총 2,600억원에 취득하는 안을 승인.
한미은행은 JP모건-칼라일 컨소시엄 취득분 이외에 약 2,553억원어치의 DR을추가 발행하고, 이를 지분율 4% 이내에서 개별 외국인 투자자들에게 매각할 예정이어서 총 4,559억원의 외자를 유치. 이로써 동행은 BIS(국제결제은행) 자기자본비율도 11.64%에서 연말께 14.10%로 높아진다고 설명함.
* 현대관련 계열사
금감원은 현대증권이 CIBC의 현대투신 보유지분과 관련하여 현대중공업에 대해 보증을 서는 과정에서 현대그룹 계열사들이 증권거래법을 위반했음을 인정하고 3~4개월동안 이들 업체들의 회사채발행을 제한하기로 함.현대중공업의 경우 향후 회사채 발행 계획이 없어 이로 인한 영향은 미미할 듯
* 담배인삼공사
정부는 담배사업법 개정안을 9월 9일자로 입법예고하였음. 개정안의 주요 골자
1) 국산담배 제조를 독점체제에서 허가제로 전환.
2) 잎담배 전량 의무 수매, 잎담배 수매대금의 일부 사전지급, 재해보상금, 장려금 지원 등 각종 의무와 지원제도 폐지.
(원칙적으로 현행 법적 지원 수준을 유지. 공사와 경작자간에 장기수매 협약에 의해 운영.)
3) 담배판매가격 자율화 (현행 인가제에서 신고제로 전환. 새행령 개정 사항이나 제조독점 폐지에 대한 국회 법개정 절차가
완료되는 즉시 개정 예고). 당사에서는 1) 담배시장의 경쟁체제 도입에도 불구하고 동사의 지배적인 시장 지위는 유지될 것으로 판단하고 있으며,
2) 담배판매가격 자율화로 동사의 주요 브랜드에 대한 가격인상이 가시화되었다는 점에서 동 규제완화 조치는 동사에 위기보다는
기회요인으로 판단하고 있음. 주가에는 큰 영향을 주지 못할 것으로 보이는데 이는 1) 동 기대가 이미 주가에 반영되어 있으며,
2) 교육세 인상에 따른 갑당 133원의 인상요인 발생으로 THIS 등에 대한 실질적인 가격 인상폭이 약 70원 수준이 될 것으로 예상되어 시장
의 기대치인 약 100원 수준을 하회하는 것으로 보이기 때문임.
[ 코스닥 뉴스 ]
* 옥션 투자의견: Mkt Perf
택배 자회사에 10억원 대출. 국내 언론에 따르면, 옥션은 동서통운(올 1/4분기 인수한 자회사)에 10억원을 대출해줌.
이 소식은 시장에서도 이미 예상하고 있었던 바이므로 주가에 미치는 영향은 미미할 것으로 판단됨. 동서통운은 전자상거래 시장에 중점을 둔 택배회사가 되기 위해 준비하고 있으며 10억원의 자금은 전국 배달망 구축과 기술 개발에 사용할 예정임.
* 한솔CSN, B2B 사업에서 꾸준한 성장 보여 투자의견: Mkt Underperf
한솔CSN의 B2B Club (www.btobclub.com)은 지난 5월 사이트 개장이후 3개월만에 약 20억원 (당사 추정과 비슷함)의 월 매출을 올리고 있음. B2B Club은 기업을 대상으로 한 기업소모품(MRO: maintenance, repair and operation) 을 제공하며 이미 회원에 가입한 회사만 13,000사에 이르고 상품 수는 7만개에 달함. 또한 동사는 11월에 ASP사업을 개시할 계획임.
* 서두인칩 투자의견: BUY
블루투스 관련 미국 회사에 100만달러 투자. 서두인칩은 미국 Wireless Interface Technologies (WIT) 사에 100만달러를 투자하여 7.7%의 지분을 획득함. 이는 동사의 기술획득과 무선통신사업강화 측면에서 긍정적임. WIT는 버클리 대학 출신 연구원들이 설립한, 블루투스(단거리 무선통신기술)와 무선 LAN RF부품 등을 설계하는 회사로서 향후 자본이득도 기대됨. 실제 블루투스 칩의 생산 시기는 2002년 하반기로 예정되어 동사의 가치에는 2001년 이후 반영될 것으로 판단됨. 동사에 대한 BUY 투자의견을 유지함.
* 인성정보 투자의견: Mkt Perf
한통 IMT-2000 컨소시엄 및 메디다스 출자. 인성정보는 한통 IMT-2000 컨소시엄에 0.2%의 지분율로 주식납입대금 12억원, 일시 출연금 26억원을 출자하기로 발표함. 또한 동사는 페이지원출자지분 5만 2541주를 메디다스 지분 18만 4354주와 메디다스와 교환하기로 발표함. 이는 동사의 기본적 가치에는 큰 영향은 없는 활동으로 판단되며, 투자의견 Markerperformer를 유지함.
[ 금일 Spot ]
* 한국가스공사 투자의견: BUY
1) 원유가 상승폭에 비해 LNG 가격 상승폭이 적음에 따라 판매량 증가 예상
2) 러시아 Irkutsk PNG 공동개발로 이익이 5-10% 증가할 수 있을 것으로 전망
3) 현주가는 2000년 FV/EBITDA 5.8배, P/B 0.7배 수준으로 저평가되어 있으며 목표주가를 32,000원으로 추정
* 대한항공 투자의견: Mkt Perf
1) 수익성 저하와 적정한 주가 수준을 감안하여 투자의견 Mkt Perf로 유지
2) 지속적인 항공기 매각으로 상당한 매각손실이 발생할 듯
3) 유가 상승으로 연료비의 58% 증가로 고전이 예상됨; 유가가 1% 인상시 EPS는 5% 감소
- FTSE, 한통프리텔-LG증권 등 편입(종합)
- FTSE 인터내셔널이 7일 전체 세계 지수(all-world index) 분기조정 사항을 발표하며 한통프리텔, KT M.com, 삼성증권, LG투자증권, 현대중공업 등을 포함시키고 현대건설, 삼성중공업, 대우증권, 대한항공, 대우중공업을 제외한다고 밝혔다. FTSE는 이번 조정사항은 오는 9월15일 장이 끝난 다음부터 적용된다고 말했다.
새로 편입되는 삼성증권의 투자비중(investibility)은 100%, LG투자증권은 100%, 현대중공업은 75%, 한통프리텔은 75%, KT M.com은 100%라고 발표했다. 이들 종목은 특별한 표시사항이 없는 경우, 보통주(ordinary stock)라고 밝혔다. FTSE는 이들 종목에 대해 특별한 표시를 하지 않았다.
또 5개 기업을 제외시켰는데, 제외되는 현대건설의 현재 투자 비중(current investibility weight)은 100%, 삼성중공업은 75%, 대우증권은 75%, 대한항공은 49%, 대우중공업은 75%였다고 밝혔다.
한국은 이스라엘, 대만과 함께 선진 이머징 마켓(advanced emerging markets)에 포함돼 있다. 대만은 에이서 주변기기, 치아오퉁 은행 등 7개가 새로 편입되고, 아시아 시멘트, 푸본 보험 등 5개가 탈락됐다.
한편 이머징 마켓에 있는 중국은 20여개가 새로 편입되고 4개가 제외됐다. 선진국 마켓에 들어있는 홍콩은 3개가 새로 편입되고 17개가 탈락했으며, 일본은 9개가 새로 편입되고 41개가 탈락했다.
