뉴스 검색결과 5,156건
- 미 ITC, 5개국 스테인리스 봉강 산업피해 판정(상보)
- [edaily] 미 무역위원회(ITC)가 한국 등 5개국산 스테인리스 봉강에 대해 산업피해 최종판정을 내렸다고 KOTRA 워싱턴 무역관이 21일 전했다.
지난 2000년 12월 미국의 카펜터 테크놀로지 등 5개 철강회사와 연합철강노조 등의 제소에 의해 조사가 개시된 산업피해 판정 건에 대해서 ITC 위원 5인 전원은 한국, 독일, 프랑스, 이탈리아, 영국 등이 미국에 공정가격 이하로 덤핑하여 미국 업계에 피해를 입혔다고 판정했다. 한편 이탈리아는 반덤핑 이외에 상계관세와 관련해서도 긍정 판결을 받았다.
이 번에 ITC로부터 산업피해 긍정판결을 받은 제품은 내부식성이 강해 펌프 및 밸브, 자동차 및 항공기 부품, 의료기기 등에 사용되는 스테인리스 특수강 제품이다. 2000년 한 해 동안 동 제품 전체수입량은 126,235 쇼트 톤(8.9억달러)으로 미국 내 전체 소비량의 43.5%를 차지했으며, 이 중에서 이번에 산업 피해 긍정판정을 받은 5개국 산은 전체 수입량에서 대략 60% 가량을 차지하고 있다. 우리나라의 경우 이 제품을 2000년 한해 동안 1만7000여 쇼트 톤(금액 기준 3000만달러)을 미국에 수출한 것으로 집계되고 있다.
【국가별.업체별 최종덤핑 마진】
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국가 업체 최종덤핑마진
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프랑스 Ugine-Savoie Imphy, S.A. 3.90%
Aubert & Duval, S.A. 71.83%
All Others 3.90%
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독일 Walzwerke Einsal GmbH 4.31%
BGH Group of Companies 16.62%
Edelstahl Witten-Krefeld GmbH 15.54%
Krupp Edelstahlprofile GmbH 32.24%
All Others 17.77%
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이태리 Cogne Acciai Speciali S.r.l. 33.00%
Acciaiera Foroni S.p.A. 7.07%
Acciaierie Valbruna S.r.l. 2.50%
Rodacciai S.p.A. 5.89%
Trafilerie Bedini S.r.l. 1.70%
All Others 3.81%
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한국 Changwon Specialty Steel Co., Ltd. 13.38%
Dongbang Special Steel Co., Ltd. 4.75%
All Others 11.30%
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영국 Corus Engineering Steels Ltd. 4.48%
Firth Rixson Special Steels Ltd. 125.77%
Crownridge Stainless Steel Ltd. 125.77%
All Others 4.48%
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* 이탈리아의 경우 최대 13.17% 상계관세 마진 판정
* 자료원: 미 상무부, 2002년 1월 16일 판정 내용
한편 덤핑 마진과 관련하여 우리나라는 창원특수강이 13.38%, 동방특수강이 4.75%의 판정을 받았으며, 기타 업체들에 대해서는 11.30%의 마진율이 산정됐는데, 이는 지난 해 7월의 상무부 덤핑 예비 판정에 비해 소폭 상향 조정된 내용이다. (동방특수강 제외, 예비판정시 덤핑 마진 창원특수강(10.05%), 동방특수강(7.30%), 기타업체(9.40%))
ITC는 판정 내용을 오는 28일 미 상무부에 통보할 예정이며, 상무부는 곧 이에 의거하여 해당국 관련 물품에 대해 반덤핑 관세를 부과하게 된다.
- (원문자료)베이지북 요약
- [edaily] 다음은 미국연방준비제도이사회(FRB)에서 16일 발표한 베이지북의 내용을 요약한 원문자료입니다.
(Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and based on information collected before January 9, 2002. This document summarizes comments received from business and other contacts outside the Federal Reserve and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials.)
Reports from the Federal Reserve Districts suggest that economic activity generally remained weak from late November through early January. But while there are still indications of caution, there are also scattered reports of improvement. The Dallas and San Francisco Districts report a continued decline in activity, while the Cleveland District indicates that the regional economy appears to be in the process of bottoming out. Economic activity remained slow or weak in the Boston, Chicago, Philadelphia, Kansas City and St. Louis Districts. Activity was mixed according to the Atlanta, Minneapolis and Richmond Districts and showed further signs of rebounding in the New York District.
Many Districts indicate that their contacts believe a recovery will begin by mid-year or earlier, but the timing and strength are uncertain. Several Districts say that uncertainty has led some businesses to budget conservatively for the first quarter.
Manufacturing activity was weak or down in most reports, but showed signs of stabilizing or rebounding in several Districts. Retail sales picked up in late December and early January but for the period overall posted generally weak results in most Districts. Auto sales slowed in December--after very strong sales in October and November--but sales remained relatively strong. Construction and real estate activity continued to soften in most Districts. Commercial real estate markets continued to weaken, and while housing markets held up overall, there was further weakness concentrated in the markets for higher-priced homes. Reports on the service sector were mixed but in general suggest sluggish economic activity. Financial institutions reported a slight softening of conditions in late November and December. Drilling activity continued to contract rapidly in response to lower energy prices, and the airline industry continued to suffer from weak demand and soaring security costs.
Labor markets remained soft. There are numerous reports of shrinking wage and benefit packages. The Cleveland District notes that employers are invoking "economic duress" clauses to renegotiate union contracts. Most Districts report declining prices for goods and services with the notable exception of sharply rising prices for security, health care, and all types of insurance.
Consumer Spending
Retail sales showed signs of improvement in late December and early January but results were generally weak overall in most Districts. Sales were flat or down compared to last year in the Boston, Richmond and St. Louis Districts. Sales were "mediocre" in Atlanta, "weak" in Dallas, "soft" in Chicago, "slow" in St. Louis and "lackluster" in San Francisco. Sales were up, however, and better than expected in the Cleveland, Kansas City, New York and Philadelphia Districts.
According to most Districts, there were aggressive promotions and unusually large discounting that reduced profit margins for retailers. The flurry of sales activity in late December and early January left inventories in good shape. Sales were strongest for home furnishings and electronics according to District reports. Sales of menswear were weak, and warm weather discouraged purchases of winter apparel and seasonal sporting goods. Discount stores continued to report stronger sales than apparel or high-end retailers. The Dallas, Boston and Philadelphia Districts note that retailers have reduced purchases for the first half of 2002 in anticipation of weak sales.
Auto sales were slower in December after very strong sales in October and November. Several districts report that sales had remained relatively strong, however, and a few Districts note that December sales were above year-ago levels. The Cleveland, Dallas and Kansas City Districts say their contacts expect first-quarter sales to weaken. The Atlanta, Kansas City and Minneapolis Districts note that inventories of used cars are high due to the large number of trade-ins that occurred in October and November. As a result, used car prices have fallen.
Manufacturing
Manufacturing activity was weak or down in nearly all Districts. Demand is lower for machine tools, metals, textiles, telecommunications and most aircraft equipment. But there are some signs of stabilization or recovery in many reports. For example, the Cleveland District says that the number of manufacturers reporting increases in new orders rose from November to December. In the Atlanta District, several firms noted a modest pickup in new orders and were rehiring some of their recently laid-off staff.
Auto production was mixed but showed indications of picking up. In the Atlanta and Cleveland Districts, some plants worked overtime hours to meet booming demand for their models, while others were forced to close for two weeks because of slumping sales of the models produced at those plants. The Chicago District reports that manufacturers said nationwide light vehicle sales exceeded their expectations again in December despite softening from November. Inventories remained very lean, according to the Chicago District, where one manufacturer indicated that its light vehicle production in the first quarter of 2002 would be 6 percent to 7 percent higher than a year earlier. Demand for some high-tech products has improved since the last survey, according to the Dallas and San Francisco Districts. The Boston and Atlanta Districts report an increase in demand for medical and security-related products, while the Chicago District reports a late-December pickup in steel production.
The reports also suggest more optimism among the country"s manufacturers, with many predicting a pickup towards the end of the first half of 2002. A higher percentage of plant managers in the Kansas City District expect increases in production than in earlier surveys. Manufacturers in the Philadelphia District indicate that they have slightly raised capital spending plans for the first half of the year in anticipation of an upturn by the middle of the year. Most contacts in the Cleveland District also expect conditions to improve late in the second quarter or early in the third quarter. Richmond manufacturers anticipate that shipments, new orders and capital expenditures will increase substantially by mid-year. In contrast, most manufacturers of heavy equipment in the Chicago District cut their forecasts for 2002. And, the Boston District reports that capital spending will be tight or reduced significantly according to a majority of their respondents.
Services
Reports on the service sector were mixed but in general suggest weak economic activity. The Cleveland and Dallas Districts report slow demand for temporary workers. Temporary employment agencies in the Richmond District, however, report somewhat stronger demand for most categories of workers.
Transportation and tourism activity was reported to be rebounding in December, but demand remains well below year-ago levels according to the Atlanta, Dallas, Minneapolis, New York, St. Louis and San Francisco Districts. Hotel occupancy rates picked up but are still below a year ago. Business travel remains down, according to the Dallas and San Francisco Districts. But, price cuts stimulated a pickup in leisure travel over the holidays and flights were fuller, according to the Chicago District. The Dallas District notes that the airline industry has significantly reduced capacity over the past two months. With 15 percent fewer aircraft in service compared to a year ago, industry capacity is now at roughly 1997-98 levels. Weak demand has pushed revenues down 15 to 20 percent below last year"s levels. Depressed revenues along with soaring security costs have significantly hurt earnings.
Construction and Real Estate
Housing markets continued to hold up in most Districts, although there were pockets of weakness, particularly for higher-priced homes. Commercial markets were softer, with the Atlanta, Chicago, Kansas City, New York and Richmond Districts reporting higher office vacancy rates. The Atlanta and New York Districts report an abundance of sublease space, while office rents were lower in the Richmond District. The Chicago and Kansas City Districts say that landlords are offering more generous tenant improvement packages that may be masking the full extent of rent declines in the commercial market. In contrast with other reports, the Cleveland District reported "uncharacteristically strong" building activity.
Banking and Finance
Financial institutions indicated a slight weakening of conditions in late November and December. Soft or declining loan demand is reported in the Chicago, Cleveland, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, St. Louis and San Francisco Districts. Competition for quality borrowers remained intense, according to the Cleveland and San Francisco Districts. Demand for commercial loans remained weak. Consumer lending has held up in this recession, but it began to soften at the end of December as higher mortgage rates choked off the surge in refinancing activity. Only the Philadelphia District reports rising loan volumes. The Cleveland and San Francisco Districts indicate some deterioration in asset quality, and the Atlanta and Cleveland Districts note some increase in delinquency rates. Tightening credit standards are reported in the Chicago, New York, Philadelphia and St. Louis Districts.
Agriculture and Natural Resources
The Kansas City, Minneapolis and St Louis Districts note concern about the absence of a protective snow cover for the winter wheat crop. The crop may already have been damaged, according to the Kansas City and St. Louis Districts. Dry weather in the Kansas City District has limited pasture growth, causing most ranchers to be reluctant to expand their cattle herds. Rain and snow helped replenish depleted soil moisture levels and improved the condition of small grain crops in the Richmond District.
Bankers in the Richmond District said low crop prices continue to leave some farmers financially vulnerable. Livestock producers have benefited from lower feed costs and lower prices for nitrogen fertilizer, however. The St. Louis District notes that the price of natural gas--a major cost component in the production of nitrogen-based fertilizer--fell by approximately 75 percent compared with last year. Government payments to crop producers and strong livestock profits in the first half of 2001 will provide some offset for weakness in farm loan portfolios, according to bankers in the Kansas City District.
Drilling activity continued to decline rapidly in response to lower energy prices, according to the Atlanta, Dallas, Kansas City and San Francisco Districts. The U.S. rig count fell from over 1000 working rigs in early November to 887 at year-end. Capital spending in 2002 is expected to be down by more than 20 percent according to the Dallas District.
The San Francisco District reports that interest in siting and building electrical power plants has slowed, with some developers backing off their "fast track" approach and taking a more wait-and-see attitude. An iron-ore mine in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and a mine in Northern Minnesota both extended a shutdown, according to the Minneapolis District, while another mine in Northern Minnesota ended an eight-week shutdown but is operating at reduced production levels. Several Kansas City District firms report expansion of coal-bed methane exploration activity.
Labor Markets
Labor markets remain soft, according to most District reports. Further layoffs are expected in the Boston District, but the Chicago and New York Districts say labor markets are stabilizing.
While there were reports of shrinking pay increases in the Chicago District, some firms are freezing pay scales in the Boston District, and downward wage pressures are reported in the Cleveland, Kansas City and San Francisco Districts. These Districts report the elimination of hiring bonuses, decreases in moving allowances and reduced merit increases. Employees are also being asked to pay a larger share of health care and other benefit costs than in past years and to accept more limited health plan options. The Cleveland District says union contracts were being renegotiated due to adverse economic conditions. Employers in the steel and aerospace industries have invoked "economic duress" clauses that exempt them from certain job-security provisions. Some of these renegotiations have involved wage concessions or agreements to postpone (with "give-back" provisions) scheduled wage increases.
Prices
Districts report declining prices for most goods and services with the notable exception of security, health care and medical, property and liability insurance. The Atlanta, Boston, Dallas, Minneapolis and New York Districts report steep increases in insurance costs.
Energy costs are lower and, as the Cleveland District notes, firms have reduced or eliminated energy surcharges. According to the Dallas District, warm weather and flagging demand led to declines in natural gas, crude oil and refined product prices. Forecasts of colder weather and collaboration between OPEC and non-OPEC producers to restrict crude oil production led prices to bounce back to just below mid-November levels. Inventories of most energy products, however, are significantly higher than a year ago.
- 삼화페인트, 환경친화 도료 "올인원" 개발
- [edaily]삼화페인트(00390)(gw.spi.co.kr 대표 김장연)는 수성방화 바니시와 다기능 수성도료 올인원(ALL IN ONE)을 개발했다고 24일 밝혔다.수성방화 바니시는 유광과 무광 2가지이며, 기존의 유성 방염도료의 단점인 냄새와 독성을 없앤 환경 친화적인 수성방염계 신규 도료다.
다기능 수성도료인 ALL IN ONE은 미세 크랙이나, 탄성도료상도 및 탄성 코킹류 상도로 도장시 미세크랙을 막을 수 있는 기능성 아크릴에멀젼을 적용한 수성도료다.다기능 수성도료는 또 실내,외 장식용 인터리어아 기존 건축물 내,외부의 콘크리트,시멘트,몰탈등의 건물도장에 뛰어난 효과를 지니고 있으며 우수한 내후성,접착력,항균력과 작업성을 나타내는 새로운 개념의 수성도료다.
삼화페인트는 수성 방화 바니시와 다기능 수성도료인 ALL IN ONE을 작년부터 시판하고 있는 천연페인트(獨,리보스社)와 함께 보급할 예정이며, 국내시장규모는 약200억원 정도이며, 내년도 매출은 20억원을 목표로 하고 있다.현재 미국,중국,캐나다등으로의 수출 판매 계약을 추진중에 있다.
- (금융시장의 연금술사들)합동작전-BOA(하)
- [edaily] 이번주 “금융시장의 연금술사들”은 BOA서울지점입니다.
(중편에서 이어집니다)
◇10년 IRS 거래, 고생만큼 보람도 커
-대고객 거래를 하면서 기억에 남는 딜은 어떤 것이 있나요.
▲송: 모 생보사가 국채10년물이 나오기 전에 10년 스왑으로 듀레이션을 늘리고 싶다는 요구를 해왔어요. 지난해까지만 해도 10년 IRS는 호가가 가물에 콩나듯했거든요. 그런데 몇백억 단위도 아니고 천억대로 스왑을 하겠다는 거에요.
헤지 수단도 없는데 난감했죠. 그런데 고객의 요구이니 거래를 하기로 했습니다. 다른 기관하고 경쟁이 붙었는데 제 호가에 덜컥 체결이 됐어요.(생보사가 10년 고정금리 리시브, 송 부지점장은 10년 변동금리 수취)
10년 짜리 채권을 판 셈이니까 헤지를 해야하는데 그때 할 수 있는 게 5년, 3년 스왑을 듀레이션 맞춰서 리시브하거나 어쩌다가 10년짜리 스왑이 나오면 일단 잡아야했습니다. 몇 개월 지나서 10년 국채가 발행됐고 김 부지점장에게 무조건 사자고 했습니다.
지금 생각하면 고생이었지만 재미도 있었어요. 한국에서도 이런 거래가 충분히 되는구나 생각했습니다.
또 하나 기억나는 것은 99년 하반기 일인데 외국계 기관이 5년 이상 장기 스왑을 1000억원하자고 제의가 들어왔어요. 이 기관이 한국에서 변동금리로 펀딩을 했는데 펀딩 코스트를 고정하려고 스왑 거래를 하려는 것이었습니다. 5년, 7년을 500억씩 나눠서 거래를 했죠. 크리스마스 시즌에 거래를 했는데 1000억원이면 큰 물량이었어요. 처음으로 큰 딜을 했던 것이고 그것도 고객 딜이어서 인상이 깊습니다.
◇FRN과 머니마켓, 본드마켓, 스왑마켓
-국내 기업과 거래한 것은 없나요
▲송: 작년 초에 몇몇 공사를 대상으로 변동금리채권(FRN) 발행을 주선 했습니다. 고정금리로 공사채를 발행하는 것보다 CD를 기준금리로 해서 FRN을 발행하는 것이 유리했습니다.
마케터(차 부지점장)가 그런 식으로 영업을 한 거죠. 그런데 공사채에 투자하는 기관들은 고정금리를 원해요. 여기에 스왑이 필요한 거죠.
▲김: 마케팅 측면에서 아주 재미있는 딜이죠. FRN에서 기준금리를 CD로 한다는 것도 의미가 있고. 기준금리를 국민주택1종이나 국고채로 하는 것보다 발행자에게 유리하거든요.
▲송: 문제는 스왑금리가 움직이면 투자자가 싫다고 하고 CD가 움직이면 발행자가 꺼리고.. 마케터가 중간에서 굉장히 애를 먹었어요. 어쨌든 그 딜은 케피탈 마켓(자금시장: 채권발행), 현물 채권, 스왑 등 3가지가 시장이 다 얽힌 종합적인 거래여서 기억에 남아요.
투자자들에게 IRS 하자고 할 때는 “이 공사채가 변동금리로 나오지만 IRS를 하면 투자가치가 더 높은 고정금리 채권이 된다. IRS 거래 상대방도 채권을 발행한 공사가 아니라 JP모건이니까 신용도에서도 걱정할 것이 없다.” 이런 식으로 마케팅을 했죠.
◇”One for all, All for one”… 합동작전
-두 분이 합동으로 매매를 할 때도 있나요.
▲송: 예를들면 김 부지점장이 채권 포지션을 줄이려고 하는데 채권을 다 팔고 싶지는 않다.그런데 국채선물 매도를 하자니 저평가가 심하다. 마침 2년 본드하고 2년 스왑하고 역전이 돼 있다면 스왑을 페이해서 포트폴리오 듀레이션 맞출 수 있습니다.
또, 김 부지점장이 5년 비지표 채권과 지표 채권의 수익률 차이를 주목했다고 하죠. 높은 금리에 나온 5년 비지표를 사고 싶은데 리스크 전체를 부담하지 않고 지표채권으로 수익률이 접근한다는 리스크만 지고 싶다고 합시다.
그러면 5년 스왑을 페이하고 국고5년 비지표를 삽니다. 스왑은 지표채권과 연결돼 있으니까 국고5년 비지표를 사고, 국고5년 지표를 매도하는 효과를 노리는 거죠. 두 채권의 스프레드가 좁혀지면 이익이죠.
▲김: 실제로 만기가 3년 정도 남은 비지표 5년물 채권이 너무 높은 금리에 매물로 나오는 경우가 있어요. 거래가 안될 때는 특히… 통상 스왑금리가 지표 수익률보다 20bp 높고, 비지표 채권 자체가 지표보다 50bp 높기 때문에 30bp 이익을 노릴 수 었습니다.
2년6개월 남은 채권이 통안2년에 비해 월등히 높은 경우에도 2년 스왑을 페이하면 같은 효과를 낼 수 있습니다. 2년6개월 채권을 사면 어차피 몇 개월 후 2년물과 같아지니까요.
-송 부지점장께서 현물 채권을 거래하는 경우도 있나요.
▲송: 1년, 2년 스왑 숏 포지션이 많이 생긴 적이 있어요. 그런데 금리가 빠지면서 헤지를 해야했습니다. 김 부지점장님께 1년, 2년 본드를 구해달라고 했죠. 그때 김 부지점장께서 1년6개월 채권수익률이 의외로 너무 높으니까 그걸 사라고 하더라구요. 그래서 1년6개월물을 샀는데 결과적으로 대성공을 거뒀습니다..
-양쪽 시장을 넘나드시는군요.
▲송: 저는 현물 브로커가 아닌 김 부지점장을 통해서만 삽니다.(웃음)
▲김: 그래서 간혹 본드 시장에 오해가 생겨요. 내가 현물 채권을 사지만 이것이 내 것인지 송 부지점장 포지션인지 밖에서는 모르니까. 반대로 송 부지점장을 통해 내가 IRS 거래를 하면 IRS 마켓에서도 그것이 내 것인지, 송 부지점장 것인지 알 수가 없죠. 겉으로는 시장에 나타나지 않으니까.
-본드와 IRS, 2개의 북을 동시에 운용하면 그런 좋은점이 있군요.
▲김: 예를들어 내가 IRS를 공격적으로 페이했어요. IRS 시장에서는 송 부지점장이 페이하는 것으로 알 수 있죠. 송 부지점장이 자기 필요에 의해 리시브를 하려고 하면 밖에서 보기에 “페이를 하더니 이제 포지션을 뒤집으려고 하는군” 하면 가격을 페이 쪽에 유리하게 주는 수가 있어요. 그럼 저는 유리해지죠. 송 부지도 본 뜻이 노출되지 않으니까 포지션 잡기가 수월하고. 포지션이 서로 반대일 때 유리한 점이 있습니다.
▲송: 시장에서는 내가 숏이라고 생각하는 데 사실 롱이라면 제가 플레이하기가 편해지죠.
▲김: 떄로는 같은 방향에서 채권을 사는 경우도 있어요. 스왑 북을 위해서 채권을 사다가 본드 쪽에서도 가세해서 사면 그 채권에 대한 시장 지배력이 커지죠.
-투신사들도 IRS 거래에 관심이 많은데
▲송: 스왑이라는 상품은 다소 지저분해요. A은행과 계약을 맺으면 포지션이 끝까지 가거든요. 크레딧 리스크를 계속 들고 갈 수 밖에 없어요. 외환위기 때 말레이시아 정부가 금융기관에 스왑을 언와인드(unwind:해지) 하라고 강제로 지시한 적이 있어요. 언와인드가 쉬울 것 같지만 앞서 얘기한데로 스왑 거래는 다른 거래와 서로 얽혀 있기 때문에 엄청난 문제를 일으킵니다.
국내 은행이나 투신이 외국계 은행과 거래를 한다면 신용도에서 문제가 있을 수 있습니다. 그렇지만 국내 은행이 원화 금리스왑을 거래하면서 가산금리를 주는 것도 모양이 이상하죠. 우선 한국의 크레딧이 충분히 올라가야합니다. 크레딧 문제만 해결되면 스왑 시장은 한단계 더 발전할 수 있습니다.
▲김: 국내 기업들도 스왑 시장을 이용할 수 있어요. 예를들어 분기마다(3개월 이표) 이자를 내는 것과 반기(6개월)에 한번 이자를 내는 것은 차이가 있어요. 스왑을 이용하면 3개월 이자를 6개월 이자로 바꿀 수 있습니다. 기업 입장에서 자금운용을 보다 용이하게 할 수 있어요.
- FRB 베이지북 요약 원문
- [edaily] 다음은 24일 미국연방준비제도이사회(FRB)에서 공개한 경기동향보고서인 "베이지북"의 내용을 요약한 원문자료입니다.
Reports from all Federal Reserve Districts indicate weak economic activity in September and the first weeks of October. In all Districts, the tragedy of September 11 was followed by a short period of sharply reduced activity. Business activity recovered quickly from some aspects of the shock, such as reduced air cargo capacity, but longer-run effects are more difficult to assess. Retail sales, other than autos, were slightly lower than before September 11, but this weakness might have already been in train. The same is true for manufacturing. Insurance premiums have increased, and security precautions are disrupting productivity.
Retail sales softened in September and early October in almost all Districts. Auto sales fell at the beginning of the period but have now rebounded following new zero-financing incentive plans. Both shipments and orders for a broad spectrum of manufactured goods, ranging from steel to semiconductors, are weak in most of the country. Construction generally slowed during the period. The softness in consumer spending, manufacturing, and construction is affecting the labor market, where layoffs and plant closings have been reported in many industries, from financial services on the East Coast to media and advertising on the West Coast to auto parts in the central states. There has been little upward pressure on either wages or prices, and, in some cases, they have actually fallen.
The Effect of September 11
Retail sales followed much the same pattern throughout the country. In the week following the attack, consumer spending dropped sharply for all items except those that were likely purchased in preparation for possible additional attacks. Sales of groceries, security devices, and bottled water increased; purchases of insurance also rose. One to two weeks later, consumer buying picked up somewhat, although in most Districts it was weaker than in early September. Contacts in the Chicago District note that the weakness is the result of fundamental economic causes prevailing before the attack, higher unemployment, and falling stock prices, rather than the attack itself.
The grounding of aircraft caused some very short-run effects. For example, the transport of fresh vegetables from the West Coast to the East Coast was disrupted somewhat. The supply chain of parts to manufacturers also was interrupted but appeared to recover quickly from dislocations in air transportation, as air cargo was promptly rerouted through ground networks.
All Districts except Boston and Kansas City report sharp declines in the hotel, airline, and tourism industries. In many Districts, demand dropped sharply immediately following the attack but later rebounded partially. Some cancelled conventions have been rescheduled. In Manhattan, Broadway theaters have noted some pickup in attendance after a sharp dropoff in mid-September. However, large layoffs in the airline industry may be the result of previously observed weakness in the industry, which was then amplified by the attack. Manhattan lost roughly 7 percent of its office space in the September 11 attack, but an estimated four percent will be repaired in upcoming months. Despite the damage, however, office availability increased slightly on balance in September.
The attack is likely to have a longer-term effect on manufacturing. Aircraft orders are down sharply, causing layoffs in the aircraft and aircraft parts industries in the Boston, Kansas City, and San Francisco regions. There has been an increase in demand for security products and data storage devices produced in the Cleveland and San Francisco Districts. Boston reports a large rise in insurance demand, while Atlanta, Dallas, and San Francisco report an increase in insurance premiums. The Atlanta and Chicago Districts report a fall in business productivity due to increased security precautions.
Consumer Spending
Retail sales softened in September and early October in all Districts except St. Louis, where sales were flat, and Minneapolis, where sales were considered normal, and Richmond, where sales returned to pre-attack levels. In the New York District, recent sales were well below levels of a year ago. Almost all regions reported that discount chains were doing much better than specialty stores, and luxury items did poorly. The softer sales tempered the retail sector"s forecasts for the holiday season. Most Districts report sales expectations that are both more uncertain and lower than they had been in August.
Automobile sales were much weaker during the first weeks of September, but all Districts, except Boston and New York, report a rebound in sales because of zero-percent financing options that are being offered. In most cases, sales were back to normal, except in the San Francisco and Atlanta Districts, where they were weaker than normal. Atlanta and Chicago also mention that sales of trucks were down.
Manufacturing
Industrial activity was generally weak throughout the country in September and early October. The only exceptions were New York, which reports some pickup in activity, and Richmond, which reports steady activity. Most Districts mention that shipments and orders are weaker than the year before, and, indeed, than in early September. The continued weakness in manufacturing has contributed to pessimism about when orders will improve, as many Districts report that they do not expect a turnaround until 2002.
The weakness is broadly based. The industries affected by lower shipments and orders include high-tech industries, such as semiconductors in the Boston, Dallas, and San Francisco regions, as well as the more traditional heavy industries such as steel in the Chicago and Cleveland regions. In spite of robust auto sales, the auto parts industries in the Boston, Cleveland, Dallas, and St. Louis Districts all reported difficult times. The resource-based industries such as lumber reported mill closures in the regions of Atlanta, Dallas, and San Francisco. A few industries are doing well. Cement in the Dallas region, some textiles in the Richmond region, and luxury goods in Cleveland report some gains.
Real Estate and Construction
Construction generally slowed during September and early October, although there were exceptions in some locations and in some types of construction. Commercial construction weakened in the Atlanta, Boston, Cleveland, Kansas City, and San Francisco regions and in the western Kentucky portion of the St. Louis region. Some commercial and industrial projects were put on hold in the Chicago, Dallas, Minneapolis, Richmond, and San Francisco Districts. Office builders were less active than in the past in the Atlanta, Cleveland, and Richmond regions, as well as in the city of St. Louis. Commercial vacancies rose in the Atlanta, Chicago, Kansas City, and San Francisco Districts. New York, in spite of the attack, still experienced a slight up-tick in vacancies. Office building held steady in the Cleveland District.
Residential construction rose only in Philadelphia and some areas of the St. Louis region. It held steady in the Cleveland and Minneapolis Districts and fell in the Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Kansas City, New York, Richmond and San Francisco Districts and some portions of the St. Louis region. In Boston, the decline followed a strong summer, so that on a year-over-year basis, construction activity was still up. In the Richmond and New York regions, the decline was seen in the construction of luxury homes. New York also reports a decline in rents in Manhattan.
Agriculture and Natural Resources
Most of the year"s crops have now been harvested. Corn and soybean harvests were good in the Richmond and St. Louis regions and in the southern part of the Cleveland region, but were below normal in the Chicago and Kansas City regions and in the northern part of the Cleveland region. Prices for cattle and hogs are low. Kansas City reports that the winter wheat crop is in the ground ahead of schedule. Atlanta reports a poor cotton harvest. Minneapolis and Dallas report weather-related poor crop yields, but San Francisco notes that West Coast harvests have generally been good.
Decreases in oil and natural gas prices have led to a decline of drilling activity in the Dallas and Kansas City Districts. Decreases in steel production have caused several iron ore mines to close in the Minneapolis District.
Financial Services and Credit
Banks experienced greater mortgage refinancing activity in response to lower interest rates across Districts. New mortgage lending was also reported to have increased in all but four districts: Kansas City and San Francisco, where loan activity generally decreased in most categories, and Boston and Dallas. Atlanta, Cleveland, New York, Philadelphia, and St. Louis report consumer loans were down. Cleveland, Philadelphia, and St. Louis report increases in commercial lending, and Chicago, New York, Richmond, and St. Louis report decreases in these loans.
The Chicago, Cleveland, New York, and San Francisco Districts report that loan delinquencies were up, and credit standards were reportedly higher in the Atlanta, Kansas City, and New York Districts. Nonperforming loans were higher in the Philadelphia and St. Louis Districts.
Employment
Many Districts report layoffs in a wide variety of jobs. Large manufacturing layoffs are reported in the Boston, Dallas, Kansas City, Chicago, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and St. Louis regions. In the service sector, hotel, tourism, and airline industries laid off people throughout the country. In addition, the Dallas, Richmond, and Philadelphia Districts saw cutbacks in the retail sector, and New York reports layoffs in the financial services industry. The West Coast"s media and advertising industry also experienced large layoffs.
Wages and Prices
Most Districts report little or no change in wages. Manufacturers were reducing salaries in the Boston District, and wages were down in parts of the San Francisco District. Steady wages or no wage pressure are reported in the Chicago, Kansas City, New York, and Richmond regions, as well as among temporary workers in the Minneapolis region. The Atlanta, Cleveland, and Dallas Districts report that wage pressures had subsided or were subdued. Dallas and San Francisco also report an increase in health care costs.
Most Districts report steady or declining consumer prices. Districts reporting steady retail prices included Kansas City and Richmond. San Francisco reports steady prices except for declining prices in apparel. Districts reporting lower retail prices included Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, and Dallas. The prices for manufactured goods also fell in the Chicago, Dallas, and New York regions, while they were steady in the Atlanta, Kansas City, Richmond, and San Francisco regions.
Input prices are reported as decreasing or holding steady, except in Cleveland, where they were mixed. Districts reporting price declines included Boston, Chicago, Dallas, Minneapolis, and New York. Those reporting steady prices were Atlanta, Kansas City, and San Francisco.
- 김 대통령, `미 대응조치 전폭지지` 메시지 전달(전문)
- [edaily] 김대중 대통령은 17일 오전 미 테러참사와 관련, 한국정부가 미국의 조치를 적극 지지하고 미국 동맹국으로서 지원에 참여한다는 내용의 메시지를 부시 대통령에게 보냈다고 청와대 오홍근 대변인이 밝혔다.
다음은 청와대 대변인의 발표내용과 메시지 전문(영문 포함)
▲김대중 대통령은 이번 미국 테러 참사와 관련한 미 정부의 대응조치에 대해 우리 정부가 미국의 조치를 적극 지지하고, 한·미 상호방위조약의 정신에 따라 미국의 동맹국으로서 지원할 것이며 국제적 연합에도 참여한다는 내용의 메시지를 부시 미국 대통령에게 전달하였다.
김 대통령은 지난 9월 12일 이번 테러행위를 규탄하고 테러근절을 위한 노력에 적극 동참하겠다는 입장을 밝힌 데 이어, 부시대통령이 이번 테러행위를 전쟁행위로 선포함에 따라 미국의 동맹국으로서 미 정부의 대응조치에 대한 적극적 지지를 표하기 위해 이번 메시지를 전달하게 된 것이다.
김 대통령의 이번 메세지는 미국 및 국제사회의 테러대응 조치를 지지하고 이에 동참한다는 원칙적인 입장표명이다. 한편, 우리의 구체적인 대미 지원내용은 미국측의 구체적인 요청이 있을 때 검토할 예정이다.
▲메시지전문
(국문) 본인과 한국 국민은 금번 테러사태와 관련, 미 국민들이 각하의 영도하에 일치 단결하여 신속한 사태수습 노력을 전개하고 있는데 경의를 표하면서, 각하께서 금번 테러를 전쟁행위로 선포하는 등 확고한 결의를 가지고 테러를 근절하기 위한 노력을 기울이고 계신 것을 전폭적으로 지지합니다.
한국 정부는 한·미 상호방위조약 정신에 따라, 미국의 동맹국으로서 필요한 모든 협력과 지원을 아끼지 않을 것이며, 테러행위 근절을 위한 미국의 행동을 지원하는 국제적 연합에 참여할 것임을 말씀드립니다.
(영문) On behalf of the Korean people, I would like to express my highest respect to the American people who are solidly united under your distinguished leadership in the effects to overcome the overwhelming difficulties your great nation is currently faced with. The Korean people and I fully support your firm resolution to root out such terrorism, as evidenced by your declaration of the current acts of terror as "acts of war", and your steadfast efforts to this end.
I assure you that the Republic of Korea will provide all necessary cooperation and assistance as a close U.S.ally in the spirit of the ROK-U.S. Mutual Defense Treaty, and will take part in the international coalition to support the U.S.actions against terrorism.
